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Learning Agents in Financial Markets: Consensus Dynamics on Volatility
Conference proceeding

Learning Agents in Financial Markets: Consensus Dynamics on Volatility

Tushar Vaidya, Carlos Murguia, Georgios Piliouras and ACM
PROCEEDINGS OF THE 17TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON AUTONOMOUS AGENTS AND MULTIAGENT SYSTEMS (AAMAS' 18), pp.2106-2108
01/01/2018

Abstract

Automation & Control Systems Computer Science Computer Science, Artificial Intelligence Engineering Engineering, Electrical & Electronic Robotics Science & Technology Technology
Black-Scholes (BS) is the standard mathematical model for European option pricing in financial markets. Option prices are calculated using an analytical formula whose main inputs are strike (at which price to exercise) and volatility. The BS framework assumes that volatility remains constant across all strikes, however, in practice it varies. How do traders come to learn these parameters? We introduce and analyze the convergence properties of natural models of learning agents, in which they update their beliefs about the true implied volatility based on the opinions of other traders.

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