Abstract
Source-free domain adaptation (SFDA) adapts a pre-trained model from a labeled source domain to an unlabeled target domain without source data access, preserving privacy. While SFDA is common in computer vision, it remains largely unexplored in time series analysis, where existing methods struggle to capture temporal dynamics and often produce overconfident predictions on out-of-distribution samples. We propose MAsk And imPUte (MAPU), which tackles temporal consistency through a novel imputation task, where randomly masked time series signals are recovered within the learned embedding space. During adaptation, a dedicated temporal imputer guides the target model to generate features that maintain temporal consistency with source features. However, MAPU relies on standard softmax predictions, leading to overconfident predictions on target samples that fall outside the source domain's support. To address this limitation, we introduce Evidential-MAPU (E-MAPU), which leverages evidential uncertainty estimation to identify these out-of-support samples and adapts the feature extractor to map them closer to the source domain's support, while maintaining the classifier fixed. Extensive experiments on five real-world time series datasets demonstrate significant performance improvements over existing methods. Our approaches effectively handle various time series domain adaptation challenges while maintaining computational efficiency, achieving state-of-the-art performance through its uncertainty-aware adaptation strategy.