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Learning agents in Black–Scholes financial markets
Journal article   Peer reviewed

Learning agents in Black–Scholes financial markets

Tushar Vaidya, Carlos Murguia and Georgios Piliouras
Royal Society open science, Vol.7(10), p.201188
10/2020
PMID: 33204473

Abstract

Mathematics
Black–Scholes (BS) is a remarkable quotation model for European option pricing in financial markets. Option prices are calculated using an analytical formula whose main inputs are strike (at which price to exercise) and volatility. The BS framework assumes that volatility remains constant across all strikes; however, in practice, it varies. How do traders come to learn these parameters? We introduce natural agent-based models, in which traders update their beliefs about the true implied volatility based on the opinions of other agents. We prove exponentially fast convergence of these opinion dynamics, using techniques from control theory and leader-follower models, thus providing a resolution between theory and market practices. We allow for two different models, one with feedback and one with an unknown leader.
url
https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.201188View
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